President Obama wants 1 million plug-in cars on the road by 2015. So how much better are these "preferred" vehicles on our economy and environment? Surprisingly, the results may not be what you expect, unless you are a pessimist. Once thought of as a costly fad, hybrid type vehicles, especially ones that use plug-in technology, are surely the future of cars to come. Nissan, Toyota, GM, Honda, Mitsubishi and Tesla are already putting together their offerings, (Tesla already has one available) and are making changes in existing plants to accommodate the future demand. The real problem is making them worth the switch and keeping them affordable. Ranging from $30,000 upwards to $101,000, for these new tech cars, seems to be very pricey to most consumers for a vehicle that makes you feel like you are in a shoe box. Yet, as styling is a work in progress for the automakers, selling the cost effectiveness is a bigger issue. Let's look at some of the offerings soon to be available.
The plug-in Prius from Toyota (due in 2010) will give you 10 gas free miles before the combustion engine kicks in. Est. 50 MPG.
The entrants from GM and Fisker (also due in 2010) will get you 40 miles before gas is the main power source. Est. 100 MPG.
The Nissian, Mitsubishi and Tesla models have an electric range of 100-125 miles before a recharge and offer no gasoline back up. This comes to an Est. 350 MPG (equivalent) depending on the type of battery and size.
Are you sold now? Want to run right out the door and get your name on the list? I didn't think so. But!, if you are trendy and trying to be socially responsible, then you better get on the list. If you think you are contributing to the improvement of the environment, think again. Another big issue for our current administration is the Cap and Trade. Carbon off-sets being bought and sold to help large manufacturers tread lighter on our atmosphere. Automakers are in this category, as are the coal-fired power plants, that will be providing the electricity for these plug-in autos. This brings us to ask the question, What is the cost benefit of producing these vehicles in correlation to the emissions, reducing carbon-off sets, they will reportedly save? The answer was recently debated in a FORBES editor note(August 24, 2009 issue). Forbes editor, William Baldwin, notes that gas is more expensive than coal(per unit of energy), but spits out not much more than half the carbon, translating to an estimated $20/ton* of avoided CO-2. *Estimate provided by the Electric Power Research Institute.
Exxon's recent shift from fossil fuel petroleum to cleaner burning natural gas, places it in a comfortable position to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and declaring it's approval of the $20/ton pricing. With this shift, Exxon hopes that coal fired power plants will follow suite. Due to the lower capital cost of gas, the greenhouse benefit in this case would be free. So where's the problem? FREE off-sets sound acceptable? Remember we said NATURAL GAS, and IF the power plants switched. Currently, the cost of providing electricity to recharge these plug-ins is far from cost effective and does very little to improve the environment, therefore, subsidizing electric cars is a bad way to reduce atmospheric carbon.
Let's go back and look at the Nissan Leaf plug-in and GM's Volt, both due out in 2010. What do they do for carbon reducing prices? These models are designed to displace a small sedans use of 5,000 gals over an average 150,000 mile life. That much gasoline produces just under 50 tons of carbon dioxide. Keeping fresh in mind that electric vehicles are not "emissions-free", they are recharged by a fossil fuel burning plant. The Leaf and Volt both will cost the taxpayers $200/ton! Wait! these vehicles require home charging units as well as public ones, adding those in and allowing for all the governments "chip-ins" to help buyers off-set cost, now we're up to $250/ton. The latest attempt to remove high emission vehicles from use is called "cash for clunkers". This program will reach carbon reducing cost of $1,700/ton and the use of bio-fuels is even more costly.
Nissan's head executive, Carlos Ghosn, a recent convert to hybrids, says the environmental winds are on his side. Hybrids such as the Leaf and Volt are transitional technology. They help reduce emissions, not eliminate them. "When you have emissions, you have suspicions," he says. Pure electric cars are clean and government policymakers world-wide are clamoring for them. "I am extremely bullish on zero-emission vehicles," he says. Within ten years, he predicts 10% of the worlds cars will be electric. He hopes Nissan will be a leader, not a follower. I hope he has accounted for lasting supply of fossil fuel still required to make his vehicle work. I also hope he has predicted the damage our atmosphere is suffering to power his plug-in dream!
Thanks for reading and hope you got a charge out this.
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